The passivity of the OSCE Minsk Group in recent months against the backdrop of meetings between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan indicates the presence of some working draft, which is not made given public, Russian political scientist, expert on the problems of the countries of the Middle East and the Caucasus, Stanislav Tarasov told News Armenia-NEWS.am.
According to him, this is evidenced by four meetings of the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as meetings of the leaders of the two countries, allegedly held under the coordination of the OSCE MG: “Few people noticed, but against the background of the meetings of the foreign ministers of the two countries, a new status was defined for the OSCE MG. Armenian Foreign Minister stated that “we are negotiating with Mammadyarov, then our proposals are being considered by the OSCE MG”. That is, they agree, and the OSCE MG is trying to arrange it. In the past, he MG presented some scenarios, proposals and plans, and the parties studied, accepted or did not accept them. ”
According to Tarasov, three personal meetings of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Dushanbe, St. Petersburg and Davos, which took place outside of the OSCE MG format, are the best demonstration of this.
The first meeting of the leaders of the two countries in Dushanbe, in the opinion of the political scientist, worked, as the tension on the contact line decreased, and operational communication began to work. “However, the script began to break down, and the OSCE MG returned to the conflict zone, announcing a meeting of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Pashinyan made a sensational statement in Tehran that the meetings with Aliyev were not negotiationsand that they agreed to meet with Aliyev at the earliest opportunity.
The question arises, and where is the OSCE MG, if Aliyev and Pashinyan agreed to meet again? But, if the parties say that we are ready to meet, that this suggests that there is some working draft, there is some working agreement that they discuss and which is not made public. And this is obvious, ”noted Tarasov.
According to the political analyst, contradictory positions and logical inconsistencies suggest that there was a project: “Azerbaijan apparently hoped that bypassing the OSCE Minsk Group, Aliyev and Pashinyan would agree on some kind of compromise type. These games have led to the situation being in a dead-end phase. And now the initiative goes to the OSCE Minsk Group, which proposes the old agenda. ”
According to Tarasov, if Baku continues its unchanged policy on the Karabakh issue, then revolutionaries who came to power in Armenia, who criticized the previous authorities on the Karabakh issue, have to say their know-how to solve the Karabakh issue: they do not do that, and moreover, have returned to the old format of negotiations within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group.
It seems that Yerevan did not work off its scenario on the Karabakh issue, and Baku reached an impasse with its games, making a bet on Pashinyan. By the way, Aliyev supported Pashinyan during the pre-election period, went to a verbal agreement on a ceasefire, although, logically, he could take advantage of the revolution and start a war. Baku had had certain hopes that Pashinyan should have shown some constructive approach, ”noted Tarasov.